The Official 2024-2025 NHL Season: Let’s Get It Started, in Here

[Grand Moff Larkin]

Going out on a limb for a few teams

Florida
Boston
Toronto
Detroit
————
Tampa
Ottawa
Buffalo
Montreal

Rangers
Devils
Carolina
Islanders
————
Washington
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
Columbus

Dallas
Colorado
Nashville
Winnipeg
Utah
———-
Minnesota
St. Louis
Chicago

Vancouver
Edmonton
Vegas
————
Los Angeles
Seattle
Calgary
Anaheim
San Jose

[nick]

Whoa, Buffalo!

[nick]

Florida
Toronto
Boston
Tampa
Ottawa
—
Detroit
Buffalo
Montreal


NY Rangers
NJ Devils
Carolina
—
Pittsburgh
NY Islanders
Washington
Philadelphia
Columbus


Dallas
Colorado
Nashville
Winnipeg
Utah
—
Minnesota
St Louis
Chicago


Edmonton
Vancouver
Vegas
—
Los Angeles
Seattle
Calgary
Anaheim
San Jose

[Grand Moff Larkin]

I just don't see how they improved

Like they got rid of Skinner and added McLeod and Zucker (and Lafferty, who is chaff). ZZZZ. They have 6 mill in cap space and could've added a real veteran piece, but will have to rely on young players getting better, which isn't a guarantee. Who's playing the tough minutes up front for them?

I'll believe it when I see it (in April, not during some hot streak in November that convinces their fans that they've turned the corner and are Legit Contenders now).

[nick]

I just don't see how they improved

Like they got rid of Skinner and added McLeod and Zucker (and Lafferty, who is chaff). ZZZZ. They have 6 mill in cap space and could've added a real veteran piece, but will have to rely on young players getting better, which isn't a guarantee. Who's playing the tough minutes up front for them?

I'll believe it when I see it (in April, not during some hot streak in November that convinces their fans that they've turned the corner and are Legit Contenders now).

Wait, you have them second in the division? Which is what I thought when you said about going out on a limb with some predictions...

[nick]

Oh, you have Buffalo in your division twice. I literally only scanned your playoff teams when I commented, so I missed the second one (which is in the correct place IMO)

[Grand Moff Larkin]

Oh the first one should’ve been Boston whoops

[Grand Moff Larkin]

In terms of the Atlantic, the division I've thought the most about:

Florida's ceiling is the best team in the division, their floor is a safe playoff team but third/fourth in the division. I have serious doubt about Boqvist & Schmidt being as good as Montour & OEL, plus they lost some forward depth. They have no cap space and Knight is starting the year in Charlotte, again. Barkov is too good and Tkachuk is too much of a psycho for the team to have a Cup hangover, but dropping a bit seems plausible.

The Broons felt like they could've dropped last year without Bergeron, but didn't, so it's hard to see Ullmark (and DeBrusk) leaving as a death knell. Ullmark wasn't a world beater when he went there (although his stats in Buffalo were better than I remembered), so it's conceivable the team D fixes Korpisalo and they're fine. They'll be top three in the division, no worries. Just not sure what they'll do in the playoffs.

The same can mostly be said about the Leaves, although Woll needs to stay healthy and/or Stolarz needs to play more than 28 games. I'm not enthusiastic about the pile-up of defensive defensemen or what they're doing with the bottom six up front, but the top guys will score a ton and elite talent wins out.

I'm staying optimistic about the Wings. Having three options in net, with no Neon James in sight, is an upgrade, even if none of those guys is necessarily reliable on his own. Lyon was excellent until he burnt out, so hopefully he's good again and the load management is better. I'll miss Walman, but Edvinsson should be their second-best D. Having eight bodies back there also gives Lalonde options, and I suspect that Albert Johansson will play a good number of games. There are legitimate questions about whether they'll score as much without Ghost, Perron (who did the dirty work on the PP), Sprong, and Walman, but Tarasenko and a full season of Kane should offset that. Ideally Kasper gets onto the roster by December and stays up -- if they're going to score more, they'll need the young guys to step up. But Copp / Ras / Fischer is an excellent defensive line and should give Compher / Kane / Tarasenko easier deployment. The biggest thing is that they got so close last year and know how much each missed point could cost them. Raymond needs to play like he did in the last two months all year, but I can see him getting 80-90 points and leading the team. Again, the most optimism I can muster, but pessimism for your own team is boring.

Guentzel is an improvement on Stamkos, but the rest of the BLOT's moves are net losses. McDonagh's 35 and not getting any younger. Sergachev was a mixed bag last year but no one else was capable of taking on some of Hedman's two-way load. Cernak's hurt a lot, Moser could be a sneaky good pick-up but who knows. Their third pair is Raddysh and Lilleberg, so if/when one of those guys gets hurt, they're in trouble. Same with up front -- the top line will kill you, but Cirelli with Hagel and Sheary could underwhelm offensively. They got Connor Geekie (unproven rookie) and Cam Atkinson (13 goals last year, 35 years old, possibly washed) for their third line. I thought Vasi being out to start last season would kill them and I was wrong, but the number of real players on this team keeps decreasing and that trend only ends one way.

The Senators could easily be in the Wings' slot here if Ullmark solidifies their goaltending, but he went from a .938 to .915 (closer to his career average) last year and the SNES do not have the Broons' defensive structure. Sanderson is great, but Zub and Chabot are a bit injury prone and Jensen can't play higher than a 4D. Their bottom pair is uninspiring. Best case scenario is that Z&C play 82, Sanderson plays 28 minutes a night, and the bottom pair gets easy deployment. Up front, it mostly depends on Stutzle and Norris returning to form, i.e. 90 points and 60 points respectively. A full year from Pinto will help, Perron has his issues (I will not miss selfish offensive zone penalties in the third period) but he does the work on the PP, and Grieg should get way more than 26 points. It feels like there's a huge range of possibilities here, so if I were a SNES fan, I could ride the notion that Ullmark locks things down, Zub and Chabot stay healthy, and the top guys up front produce more like the Leaves' Big Four. But I'm not so they're missing the playoffs again.

I wrote about the Sabres above. Lots of good young talent, don't know if they're in a position to succeed. Levi needs to be a lot better. Thompson needs to score 40-50, not 29. Someone like Benson or Kulich needs to produce like a bona fide top six forward. Again, I'll believe it when I see it.

The Canadiens should be somewhat better this year. I still do not think they'll be good. Maybe Hutson gets 50-60 points, but I still think he gets roasted defensively by big, fast forwards. Does Dach stay healthy? Is Newhook any good? Can Montembault play 50-60 games? Lots of questions.

[Grand Moff Larkin]

In short:

FLA, BOS, TOR: in
DET, TBL, OTT, BUF: who knows!
MON: out

[sutterfamily]

The Sabres will be bad

I have no idea what Ottawa will do. I agree with pretty much the entire Neu assessment of them! but, honestly... .915 is a massive improvement. Their team save percentage last year was .888.

A 17 point change would have had a significant impact on their record last year. They lost a LOT of 1 goal/1 goal + empty netters games last year. If Ullmark has a really good year and is closer to .920 then that obviously could be difference for them. Not to mention the games they lost because the team would be instantly deflated getting a goal scored against on the 1st/2nd shot of the game (which happened 20+ times last season. I forget the actual count but it was absurd)

The defence is correctly called out as the biggest concern. If Travis Hamonic is playing more than a handful of games for you in 2024-2025, you're doing things wrong.

[sutterfamily]

Also not really sure what the final Travis Green system will look like. Can he help the overall team defence? It seems like somebody SHOULD be able to do this!!??!

[sutterfamily]

last year and the SNES do not have the Broons' defensive structure.

I've seen this said a lot and it's not as true as people think. The Bruins were actually 18th in Expected goals against last year. Ottawa was 14th!!

I do think the Bruins had an overall better structure but they had a bad year last year with a big droppoff from the season before (they were 6th that year in xGoals against in 2022/23)

[Grand Moff Larkin]

I'm surprised the SNES were that high in expected goals against. Were the forwards more committed defensively last year?

Here's a concern for Ullmark: how many games can he play? He's never done 50, but the difference between him and Anton Forsberg is big enough that I think they'll try to push him well past that number.

As much as we dunk on him for being veal-brained, I do wonder if they'll miss Chychrun, or at least the potential of Chychrun. Jensen's a steady puck-mover and certainly less worrisome than Chychrun, but he's not going to create offense.

I looked at the SNES stats for last season and chuckled about two players being -30, with the next worst being -17 in Stutzle. Those two were Dominik Kubalik and Jakob Chychrun. I know it's a Dumb Stat but in that context I think it's useful.

[Cacophony]

Very little excitement for this season. Wild will finish 6th or something and probably misuse Ohgren and barely use Wallstadt. Marcus Johansson will continue to get a myriad of chances and same with Gaudreau. Yawn

[Grand Moff Larkin]

I hate the way the NHL has a European kickoff that occurs at the same time as preseason games. I never know when the actual season starts.

I don't like the European games at all. Don't take the opener away from the local fans.

[Alexei Ca$hin]

Korpisalo looking great tonight

[nick]

Ullmark reups 4 years at $8.25 per, which seems about right (good term, maybe a tiny bit more than you'd want but Ottawa tax + cap rising should make it fine)

Having some (likely) stability in goal has got to be a good thing for them

[Alexei Ca$hin]

Signing a goalie before he's ever played a game for them is a very Ottawa thing to do

[Grand Moff Larkin]

Signing a goalie before he's ever played a game for them is a very Ottawa thing to do

This was my immediate thought. He’s obviously better than Korpisalo but I still think there are questions.

[Grand Moff Larkin]

Goilers? Not a preseason game, buds