Compete Level

sutterfamily wrote: ↑Mon Dec 16, 2024 9:02 am

I'll be honest: the Wings getting Ottawa on the ninth game of a road trip is a best-case scenario.

No doubt! I think that's a likely L (although, also no offense tho I'm sure you "get it", it's probably one of the two most winnable games on the trip). Hopefully they can manage to keep the whole thing from being a disaster. I think 3-5-1 or 3-4-2 would actually be a pretty good result (sadly)

I also agree Calgary's not a pushover I'm just comparing it to the rest of the games!

sutterfamily wrote: ↑Mon Dec 16, 2024 9:54 am
WPG: Maybe OT loss? Similar styles, will depend on goaltending. They outplayed them last year and lost in OT based on this exact reason.

2. Linus Ullmark’s bounce-back

After a rough start, it’s great to see Linus Ullmark return to form for Ottawa. He looks exactly like the player fans thought they were getting from Boston: a Vezina-caliber starter. Over the last few weeks, Ullmark has posted eight straight starts in which he’s saved more goals than expected. During that stretch, Ullmark has a .955 save percentage and has saved 13.5 goals above expected, tops in the league. Prior to that, Ullmark was fifth-last in goals saved.

Unsurprisingly, the Senators are 7-0-1 in Ullmark’s starts during this stretch and are back in the thick of the East’s playoff race. Ottawa’s playoff chances have climbed from 20 percent to 55 percent during that time.

3. Maple Leafs end five-forward power play experiment

Thanks to a sputtering power play to start the season, the Leafs got creative with a five-forward setup featuring Matthews, Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares and Matthew Knies. It made some sense on paper, with every player in a seemingly natural spot (including Marner up top), but in practice, it just didn’t work.

The quintet spent just 17:22 together this season and maybe could’ve ironed out the kinks with a bit more time. But compared to the team’s usual setup, the 5F power play generated fewer chances (7.1 xGF/60 compared to 10.7) and allowed an exorbitantly high amount of chances and goals against. The risk far outweighed the reward.

Alexei Ca$hin wrote: ↑Wed Dec 18, 2024 10:55 pm Alexandre Carrier for Justin Barron is a strange deal too. Both teams just looking for different type of players? Doesn't move the needle for either team.

Cacophony wrote: ↑Wed Dec 18, 2024 11:30 pm Kakko is a bust.

I fucking hate the panthers

8. Carolina’s third pair struggling

Early on in the season, one of the reasons Carolina was dominating opponents was its new third pair. Yes, they were playing easy minutes, but their results in those minutes were eye-popping enough not to matter. In their first 10 games together, Shayne Gostisbehere and Sean Walker had a 78 percent xG rate, outscoring opponents 6-2 in the process.

Their work since, though, has been much weaker and it’s part of the reason Carolina has struggled of late. Since the hot start, the pair’s xG rate has regressed to 52 percent, a rather modest rate for a very sheltered third pair. They’ve also been outscored 17-10. Some of that is bad luck, obviously, but given each player’s reputation for weaker defense, it’s not a huge surprise to see goals being scored against them in bunches.

The pair is still controlling play and should turn it around, but given the aforementioned defensive weaknesses as well as their smaller statures, it’ll be interesting how the duo performs in a playoff setting. Can that third pair handle the heat?